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Box Elder, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Box Elder SD
National Weather Service Forecast for: Box Elder SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Rapid City, SD
Updated: 5:09 am MDT Jun 27, 2025
 
Today

Today: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Some of the storms could be severe.  Sunny, with a high near 98. South wind around 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunny then
Severe
T-Storms
Tonight

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Some of the storms could be severe.  Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Severe
T-Storms
then Mostly
Clear
Saturday

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 91. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Sunny

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Chance
T-storms then
Showers
Likely
Sunday

Sunday: A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Chance
T-storms

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight.  Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Clear
Monday

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Sunny

Monday
Night
Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Mostly Clear

Tuesday

Tuesday: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.
Sunny then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Hi 98 °F Lo 61 °F Hi 91 °F Lo 60 °F Hi 82 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 58 °F Hi 91 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Today
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 3pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Sunny, with a high near 98. South wind around 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tonight
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Some of the storms could be severe. Mostly clear, with a low around 61. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Saturday
 
Sunny, with a high near 91. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
 
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. North wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Sunday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Mostly clear, with a low around 57. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 15 mph.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Monday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 91.
Tuesday Night
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Wednesday
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62.
Thursday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Box Elder SD.

Weather Forecast Discussion
880
FXUS63 KUNR 271119
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
519 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  this afternoon and evening, mainly east of the Black Hills. Main
  hazards will be large hail (quarter size or larger) and
  damaging wind gusts.

- Hotter temperatures are expected today, with highs climbing into
  the 90s for most.

- Heat shifts east on Saturday, with widespread showers and
  thunderstorms anticipated late Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 217 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Water vapor imagery tonight shows brought, modest troughing and
associated enhanced deep moisture over much of the western CONUS. An
embedded upper low center is evident near the WA/BC border, with an
attendant disturbance extending into the northern Rockies. Closer to
home, a cluster of storms continues to shift eastward across
northwestern SD. Though largely elevated, occasional gusts of 40-50
mph have been observed within and behind this convection, and
subsevere hail likely accompanies the strongest cores. This activity
is supported by low-level warm air advection and convergence near
the nose of a 30-35 kt low-level jet focused over the NE panhandle,
per latest SPC mesoanalysis. The strongest activity will likely
traverse Ziebach County later in the overnight/very early morning
before departing the area and gradually weakening as the low-level
jet diminishes. Outside of the storms, it`s a pleasant night, with
locally warm temperatures (lower 70s) in locations such as Newcastle
and Edgemont owing to easterly downslope winds.

Midlevel trof and associated speed max, along with attendant low-
level trof, cross the region this afternoon and evening. Most
favorable environment for explosive convection capable of severe
hazards continues to be projected to remain east of the Black Hills
and largely east of our area. 00z HREF mean SBCAPE of 2-3+ kJ/kg
coupled with 0-6 km shear vector magnitudes of 30-40 kt are present
from central NE northward thru central SD by late morning,
expanding/shifting northeastward with time thru the afternoon. Dry
midlevel air will translate to deep, well-mixed boundary layers and
high LCLs over much of the area, which will limit tornado potential
outside of our far eastern tier (i.e., around Dupree to Winner).
However, the high LCLs may increase the potential for damaging
winds. Similarly, relatively modest low-level shear will further
limit tornado potential, but hodographs look favorable for very
large hail formation. Altogether, the primary hazards over most of
the area will be large to giant hail and damaging winds, potentially
locally significant. The time frame of the primary severe threat
will be fairly limited--from around 20z thru 04z or so. However, a
secondary weak disturbance moving through zonal/slightly
southwesterly flow aloft later in the evening may support additional
shower/storm activity contingent on evolution of convection earlier
in the day.

Surface trof slowly shifts eastward tomorrow night thru early
Saturday, effectively stalling over the region just south of our
area. Low-level north/northeast flow should allow for moisture
recovery in the wake of today`s convection. As an upper jet streak
passes north of the area, Q-vector convergence associated with the
right entrance region should promote ascent over the lingering
baroclinic zone late Saturday into Saturday night, leading to
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity. Compared to tomorrow,
CAPE will generally be lower, but shear will be improved, especially
across our western zones. As such, it will be another day to watch
for potential severe hazards. Low-level shear remains very weak, so
primary threats will be hail and wind. Storm chances continue into
Sunday as a more notable midlevel trof is carved out over the north
central CONUS. Though not currently in the SPC Convective Outlook
for Sunday, some longer duration CAMs do suggest a favorable
environment for severe across southwestern and south central SD by
Sunday afternoon.

Southeast to northwest oriented ridging builds over the
Plains/Rockies on Monday in the wake of the aforementioned trof.
Rising heights at all levels on Monday will likely limit convective
activity; however, northwest flow aloft and increasing CAPE from
Tuesday onward should support at least isolated convection each day,
some of which could be severe. Relatively mild temps on Sunday will
also give way to warmer/hotter conditions as height/thermal ridging
extend into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued At 519 AM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Localized MVFR/IFR conditions in ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA from
northwestern SD thru south central SD will persist thru
approximately 15z before this activity diminishes. Outside of the
SHRA/TSRA, areas of fog/low stratus are contributing to MVFR/IFR
conditions in the same region, along with the foothills/plains
along the eastern and northern/northwestern periphery of the Black
Hills. Conditions areawide should improve to VFR by around 15z.

After 18z, and likely closer to 21z, ISO TSRA are expected to
develop over portions of western SD and central SD. In addition to
localized IFR/LIFR conditions, the strongest storms will be
capable of hail of quarter sized or larger and erratic wind gusts
in excess of 50 kt. Much of this TSRA activity will diminish by
06z, though storms could linger across northwestern SD thru the
period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Sherburn
AVIATION...Sherburn
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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